GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — Normally in February, when we forecast 1 to 3 inches of precipitation, we are talking snow. But not through Wednesday morning.
The problem? It will combine with melting snow and a saturated, still frozen ground that will exacerbate the flooding issue. Not all of the snow melted this past weekend. There still remains approximately 0.5 to 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent across Southwest Lower Michigan.
West Michigan typically receives its heaviest precipitation events when it can tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As you can see from the water vapor loop, the Gulf of Mexico is wide open for business.
What will extract the moisture is a slow-moving area of low pressure and associated warm and cold fronts that will track through Lower Michigan.
There will be plenty of water to extract from the atmosphere. Near record-high values for this time of year will exist across Southern Lower Michigan. The definition of precipitable water is the measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb.
All the ingredients are there for the potential of heavy rain with the chance of a thundershower.
Other forecast models are on the same page in terms of the potential for heavy rainfall. The record rainfall for Feb. 20 is 1.40 inches, which was set way back in 1898.
All these factors have prompted the National Weather Service to issue a Flood Warning for all of Central and Southern Lower Michigan until 7 a.m. Thursday. This corresponds with many other river flood warnings throughout West Michigan that you can see on woodtv.com’s weather alerts page.
Periods of heavy rain will continue at times with any additional snow melting and with a still frozen ground it has no where to go but into area streams and rivers. As of Tuesday it appears the Grand River near Comstock Park will be most impacted and near the Lansing area. It appears the Grand River will peak in the Grand Rapids area this weekend.
Storm Team 8 will track where the heaviest rainfall will occur and will continue to update you throughout this event.
In the event that some roads are flooded over, authorities remind people not to drive through standing water. It can be difficult to tell how deep the water is, so your car may stall out. Additionally, you can’t tell if the road underneath has washed away. Drivers should also obey all road closure signs.
The rain and warm temperatures led the ice rink at Rosa Parks Circle in downtown Grand Rapids to be closed Monday.
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