Finland's PM Sanna Marin faces 3-way battle to keep her job; will she survive the race?

The upcoming parliamentary election in Finland on Sunday appears to be a highly competitive contest among three political parties, as Prime Minister Sanna Marin's Social Democrats seek to win another term in leading the government.

Finland's parliamentary election is happening shortly after successfully clearing a major obstacle in its 10-month effort to become a NATO member. On Thursday, Turkey's parliament endorsed the accession of the northern European country to the Western military alliance.

At 37-year-old, Sanna Marin is among the youngest leaders in Europe and has been commended for her government's management of the COVID-19 crisis. In the past year, she has gained more international recognition due to her vocal advocacy for Ukraine. Although Marin remains popular domestically, Finns are also dissatisfied with the increasing cost of living in their country.

The Finnish election campaign has been primarily focused on topics that have a direct impact on voters' daily lives, such as the economy, climate change, education, and social welfare. Job creation and the country's fast-rising government debt are some of the concerns that will likely demand the attention of the next government in this Nordic nation of 5.5 million people.

“Above all, we must seek economic growth and stronger employment,” Marin said in a recent interview with Finnish public broadcaster YLE. “If we don’t succeed in these two things, we won’t be able to reduce our indebtedness, and we won’t be able to balance our economy.”

Although Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered Finland's pursuit of NATO membership in May 2022, neither the decision to abandon the country's non-alignment policy nor the conflict has been a significant topic in the ongoing election campaign. It is worth noting that Finland shares a long land border with Russia.

In advocating for Finland's application to join NATO, Prime Minister Sanna Marin played a prominent role, along with President Sauli Niinistö. The application was submitted together with Sweden, and Marin expressed her gratitude on Friday to the countries that backed Finland's membership.

Overall, there was a broad consensus among Finland's political parties, and strong public support for the country's accession to the Western military alliance.

More than 2,400 candidates from 22 different parties are competing for the 200 seats in Finland's parliament, known as the Eduskunta. However, recent opinion polls indicate that three parties are likely to be the front-runners: Prime Minister Sanna Marin's Social Democratic Party, the centre-right National Coalition Party, and the right-wing populist The Finns party.

According to recent polls, each of the three main parties is projected to receive approximately 20% of the vote in the upcoming parliamentary election on Sunday. If this outcome materialises, it would mean that none of the parties would have a clear mandate to form a government on their own. Instead, the party with the most votes is expected to initiate negotiations next week to form a coalition government with other parties.

Finland's most prominent newspaper, Helsingin Sanomat, has referred to the upcoming parliamentary election as "a real thriller" in a recent editorial, predicting that the closely fought race is likely to encourage high voter turnout. In fact, about 40% of eligible voters have already cast their ballots in advance.

Sanna Marin has been serving as the Prime Minister of Finland since December 2019. Her Social Democratic Party leads a centre-left coalition government in collaboration with other parties, including the Center Party, the Green League, the Left Alliance, and the Swedish People's Party in Finland.

It is worth noting that the leaders of all five parties in the current Finnish coalition government are women, which is a remarkable achievement and rarity in Europe and the rest of the world. Additionally, out of a total of 19 Cabinet members, 11 are women, making Marin's Cabinet one of the most gender-equal in the world.

Prime Minister Sanna Marin has stated that her Social Democratic Party will not form a coalition with The Finns after the election, citing significant differences in values and policies. The right-wing populist party has campaigned on an anti-immigration and anti-European Union platform. Furthermore, if the Social Democrats win, they will not be able to form the same coalition as before, as the Center Party has stated that it no longer favours this type of government composition.

On the other hand, The Finns are highly critical of the government's goal to make Finland carbon-neutral and fossil-free by 2035, considering it naive and unrealistic. The populist party, which also has a female leader, envisions the country becoming carbon neutral by 2050 at the earliest.

Riikka Purra, the leader of The Finns, criticised the government's approach to achieving carbon neutrality and transitioning to a green economy in the party's recent newsletter. She questioned if Finland's strategy is solely based on green promises and spending money on initiatives that sound good.

Meanwhile, the centre-right National Coalition Party, led by former Finance Minister Petteri Orpo, shares the Social Democrats' goal of achieving climate neutrality but may struggle to reach a consensus on economic policies. The NCP has indicated its willingness to form a coalition with The Finns.

Orpo, who has led the party since 2016, has promised to create around 100,000 new jobs and promote entrepreneurship if his party comes to power. Additionally, the NCP wants to increase Finland's energy supply from nuclear power. At present, the country has five reactors that generate about 40% of its electricity.

“One of the most important tasks of the future government is to remarkably speed up the construction of new nuclear power plants in Finland,” Orpo said, writing in a blog on the party’s website that the next prime minister should make nuclear power “the cornerstone of the government’s energy policy.”

The Finnish-Russian border relationship

Finland and Russia share a land border of approximately 1,340 kilometers (832 miles). The border runs from the Gulf of Finland in the south to the Arctic Ocean in the north and is the European Union's longest external border.

The border between the two countries is based on the Treaty of Tartu, which was signed in 1920 and has been respected by both sides. However, there have been occasional disagreements over issues such as fishing rights in the border area, and Finland has expressed concern over Russia's military activities in the region. 

In the post-World War II era, Finland maintained a policy of neutrality and non-alignment, which allowed it to maintain friendly relations with both the Soviet Union and the West. After the Soviet Union's collapse, Finland pursued closer ties with the West while maintaining a pragmatic relationship with Russia.

However, Finland maintains strong economic ties with Russia, and the two countries have worked together on issues such as cross-border trade and environmental cooperation. Some diplomatic tensions between the two countries also include disputes over border crossings and military activity in the Baltic Sea region.