US unemployment rate rises to 4.1% as economy added 151,000 new jobs in February – as it happened

After a red letter week for the European markets, and beyond, it’s time to wrap up.

A quick recap:

The US labor market continued to grow in February even as threats of mass layoffs in the federal government and uncertainty around Donald Trump’s tariff policies rattle the US economy.

In February, 151,000 jobs were added to the economy, up from an adjusted 125,000 jobs gained in January. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, little changed from 4% in January.

A total of 10,000 federal jobs were lost over the month but those losses were countered by hiring in healthcare, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance.

European stock markets have slumped after Donald Trump’s second reversal on tariffs caused deep uncertainty among investors, while the euro was on track for its biggest weekly rise since the financial crisis.

Germany’s Dax index is down 1.9% in late trading, as weak factory data added to the signs of difficult economic conditions. France’s Cac 40 is down 1.3%.

In London, stocks have shrugged off their earlier losses, but that still leaves the FTSE 100 on track for its worst week this year.

China’s foreign minister has accused the US of “two-faced” behaviour, condemning the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods and warning against the “law of the jungle” that could emerge from Donald Trump’s “America First” policy.

Wang Yi was speaking after the latest trade data showed a drop in Chinese imports, suggesting trade war fears were hitting demand.

UK house prices unexpectedly fell last month as concerns over the sluggish economy outweighed an anticipated rush of people trying to complete purchases before stamp duty increases in April.

Donald Trump’s flip-flopping over tariffs is causing chaos for farmers and food producers on both sides of the US-Canada border, Bloomberg reports.

Trump slapped 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods on Tuesday, only to then delay the new duties on many products on Thursday,

“This is the biggest challenge we’ve ever faced and I’ve been doing this for over 20 years,” said John Nickel, a Manitoba hog producer who sells exclusively to the US.

His first of two weekly shipments of piglets crossed the border tariff-free on Monday, but he doesn’t know whether a 25% markup will appear on the invoice for the animals he sent Thursday morning. More here.

Wall Street has reversed its earlier small fall:

Donald Trump’s threatened trade war against Mexico and Canada risks dragging both countries into recession, and the US with it, economists fear.

A Reuters poll of economists across North America found that the risks to the Mexican, Canadian and American economies are piling up, and that the chaotic implementation of U.S. tariffs that has created deep uncertainties for businesses and decision-makers.

Reuters polled 74 economists across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, and 70 said that the risk of a recession in their respective economy had increased.

Donald Trump has another target for tariffs – Russia.

On his Truth Social site, the US president has just threatened to impose new sanctions on Moscow unless a peace deal with Ukraine is agreed soon.

Trump, who has faced criticism for being much harder on Ukraine then Russia, writes:

Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely “pounding” Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED.

To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!

Today’s jobs report hasn’t changed the mood on Wall Street, it seems.

Stocks have opened in the red, adding to losses yesterday as trade war fears rattle investors’ nerves.

The Dow Jones industrial average has dipped by 138 points, or 0.33%, to 42,440 points.

The broader S&P 500 index is also slightly lower, down 0.12%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite is flat.

We’ll probably have to only wait a month to see the impact of Elon Musk’s axing of federal government services in the jobs data.

Sara Pineros, economist at the CEBR thinktank, predicts March’s non-farm payroll (due on 4 April), will include a DOGE effect.

Pineros says:

Nonfarm payroll employment in the US increased by 151,000 in February, falling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.1%. These were the first full-month figures under the new Trump administration and come amidst large-scale cuts to federal government jobs by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

However, these cuts did not influence the February data much, as they mostly commenced after the mid-month snapshot. They will instead be evident in the March data published next month.

Beyond the impact of government job cuts, Cebr expects the ongoing uncertainty around US economic policy, specifically tariffs, to pose a downside risk to the labour market and the wider economy in the coming months.”

The US jobs market is “still in decent shape” argues Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics:

The modest 151,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February and 0.1%-point rise in the unemployment to 4.1% confirms the economy started the year soft but is not plummeting towards a recession.

Some of those fears may resurface in the March Employment Report, when recent federal government layoffs will be a much larger drag on employment than they were last month. But with private-sector hiring still running at a fairly healthy three-month average pace of 169,000, it suggests the labour market can handle it.

Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, says the jobs report could allay some fears over the health of the US economy:

The earnings number was solid as well, which is supportive for the consumer sector. Clearly we need to see more evidence on lay-offs in the public sector and to understand what impact they will have overall, but this number means we can breathe more easily as we go into the weekend.

Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, calls the report “disappointing”, though:

“Today’s jobs figures are below expectations, indicating that demand in the labour market is lower than anticipated.

This disappointing news comes at a time when the market is in need of a pick-me-up. Bearish sentiment has begun to grow as new tariffs have prompted concerns about the outlook for economic growth and a spike in initial jobless claims figures last week called into question the health of the labour market. Today’s numbers may be seen to reinforce anxieties on both fronts. With investors already concerned about a growth slow down, we will likely see greater sensitivity to economic data in the coming days and weeks.

As a result, this report could further weigh on the market after a forlorn February.”

This may sent alarm bells ringing: The number of Americans employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February.

These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

Heather Long, economic columnist at the Washington Post, says this can be an “early warning sign” of a weakening economy:

Here’s a breakdown of some of the sectors of the US economy that added jobs in February.

• Health care added 52,000 jobs in February

• Employment in financial activities rose by 21,000, although commercial banking lost 5,000 jobs.

• Transportation and warehousing employment rose by 18,000,.

• Employment in social assistance rose by 11,000

• Warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers added 10,000 jobs.

But there were losses in other sectors too:

• Within government, federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February.

• Employment in retail trade fell by 6,0000

• Employment in food and beverage retailers declined by 15,000, “largely due to strike activity”.