California Forever planner speaks at UC Davis

The old adage goes “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” but all four panelists at a UC Davis Symposium on Friday agreed that the housing process in California is broken as it currently exists.

Gabe Metcalf, Chief Planner for California Forever, spoke alongside three other presenters at the UC Davis Environmental Law Symposium Friday afternoon, outlining the case for a new city in Solano County as part of the solution. Jennifer Hernandez, a Partner at Holland and Knight who works with California Forever as well as Ethan Elkind, a UC Berkeley Law Professor, also spoke, and  UC Davis Law Professor Chris Elmendorf moderated the event.

Elkind spoke in favor of infill housing, particularly from an environmental and economic equity perspective. Elkind said he favors infill because the state is well behind on its emissions goals, as about 50 percent of the state’s emissions come from oil and gas production, refinement and transportation. The best way to limit emissions is to limit driving miles, Elkind said, and infill housing limits vehicle miles more than greenfield housing.

Elkind also showed high risk wildfire zones on a map of the Bay Area, noting that greenfield development can come with a higher wildfire risk. Notably, California Forever’s proposed city site at the intersection of Highway 113 and Highway 12 was not marked as high fire risk on that map. Elkind also noted increased racial segregation in California neighborhoods due to a lack of affordability.

Elkind praised ADUs (Accessory Dwelling Units, also known as granny flats or in-law suites) as a way to raise density with infill housing, as that playbook has proved successful in recent years to address affordability and equity challenges in the state’s housing.

“The state has gradually clawed back local control on ADUs,” he said, “And it’s a game of whack-a-mole to stop locals from finding loopholes.”

Hernandez, making clear that she is speaking on her own behalf, railed against the idea that California families should be forced to settle for ADUs. Hernandez said California cities have continued to follow WW2 housing policies that are effectively segregationist.

“I am a strong environmentalist, I am a Berkeley Democrat, but the idea that my brother the welder is supposed to raise his three children in someone’s garage is a housing victory?” Hernandez asked.

“Infill only means a constraint, a constraint means a shortage, a shortage means that those least able to pay get screwed, and that is the infill only experience,” she said.

Internationally, she said, decades worth of studies illustrated that constrained geographic boundaries lead to housing shortages and housing cost crises, which disproportionally affect communities of color. Density does not pencil in high cost areas, further adding to the crisis.

Hernandez said it is “Nonsense that everyone should live in an 800 square foot apartment and never have the chance to accumulate wealth.”

Some 97 percent of Californians drive, Hernandez noted, but even without accounting for EVs, tailpipe smog emissions are down by more than 90 percent due to smog standards.

“This is not an air pollution issue, this is a land use preference,” she said.

By creating environmental quality communities in greenfield areas, environmentalists’ hopes can be realized, Hernandez argued, but an unwillingness to do so leaves the state stranded on both housing and climate issues.

“The environmental community has always hated development. Period,” Hernandez closed.

Metcalf pitched attendees on the idea of building a “new city,” having worked hard on infill over the years, and found insufficient answers.

“I reckon I’ve worked as much on infill as anyone in the world has and I basically agree with everything (Elkind) said on infill,” Metcalf said, striking a more magnanimous tone. “I also have come to feel that we need another tool and maybe a few other tools.”

About 79 percent of new housing production is greenfield across the nation, he said, and given how far behind California is on housing production, it stands to reason to make that 79 percent as good as it can be rather than trying to eliminate it. California Forever hopes to do that with a comfortable and familiar style community, he said, reminiscent of famous neighborhoods in Boston, Washington DC and San Francisco.

Metcalf said the firm proposed a new city in part because California cannot keep up with the demand for housing it needs to grow economically. This will cause progressive areas in the state to bleed voters to other states, he said, as California is currently projected to lose four electoral votes and House of Representatives districts in 2030 and Texas is expected to gain four.

“It just cannot be the answer that places controlled by Democrats will be in decline and places that grow will be controlled by Republicans,” he said.

Metcalf said the proposed city is set on land that is not prime agricultural land and will not be affected by sea level rise in the worst case scenario. By creating row homes along the county road structure, the city could have a block structure similar to Chicago or Manhattan. In a way, he said, the firm is hearkening back to the original plans for those cities, as well as the patterns in Benicia and Vallejo.

A grid of bus rapid transit lines through the city would terminate at garages on the north-eastern end of the city, he said, and the city would use light rail and freight rail through a historic rail spur that already exists. The density would be close to San Francisco or Boston, he added.

Metcalf asked Hernandez what developers can do to solve the issue, and she said the issue is not up to them but regulators. If the state wants to get serious about its housing crisis, she said, it could enforce the state-approved housing elements already passed.

“We’re a kind of banana republic, build absolutely nothing anywhere near anyone,” Hernandez said of the state.

Elkind raised comparisons to Mountain House, which he said has become an instance of bedroom community sprawl, and alleged that the firm’s plan is merely a response to lack of growth in cities.

“To me I see California Forever as a symptom,” Elkind said.

Metcalf said the state needs to provide more bedrooms, as space is at a higher premium than jobs under California’s housing crisis. He also noted that the community will attract employers as a “jobs-led community”.

Regarding community engagement, Metcalf said decisions should be left up to representatives rather than settled in public meetings.

“I personally don’t think we should be trying to make more decisions by meetings,” he said.