Europe's Population Crisis: The Nations Getting Smaller

Europe has long faced the problems associated with shrinking populations, with some nations, particularly in Eastern Europe, dealing with a "dual demographic challenge."

Countries With the Lowest Population Growth Rates

Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Moldova, Croatia and Montenegro are the 10 European countries with the lowest population growth rates.

This refers to the average annual percentage change in population, resulting from a surplus or deficit of births over deaths and the balance of migrants entering and leaving a country.

Latvia's population growth rate is -1.14 percent, Lithuania's -1.05 percent, Poland's -1 percent, Romania's -0.94 percent, Estonia's -0.76 percent, Bulgaria's -0.66 percent, Serbia's -0.61 percent, Moldova's -0.58 percent, Croatia's -0.46 percent and Montenegro's -0.44 percent.

This data is from The World Factbook's estimates for 2024, as specific data for this year is not available yet.

Reasons For Their Low Population Growth

While countries in Eastern Europe are particularly badly affected, the entire continent is grappling with low fertility rates and aging populations.

This means there are proportionally fewer economically active individuals to pay the taxes and offer support to the increasingly large section of the population requiring help as they age.

In developed countries, an average of 2.1 live births per woman is considered the threshold needed to replace a population, but European women have an average of 1.52 children.

Immigration is another crucial issue – it was the driving force behind the 1.7 percent population growth that European Union nations experienced between 2013 and 2023, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU.

Indeed, the "main reason" for the low population growth of the 10 countries mentioned earlier is "outmigration," according to the deputy director of the Vienna Institute of Demography, Tomas Sobotka.

He told Newsweek: "Most are formerly state-socialist countries of the Soviet Bloc with lower incomes and more peripheral position within Europe. Demographically, they experienced substantial outmigration to richer parts of Europe combined with low fertility rates, higher mortality (than in the richer parts of Europe), resulting in population shrinking and accelerated aging of their populations."

Public health and policy expert Poonam Muttreja, who is the Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India, told Newsweek that the likes of Latvia and Lithuania face a "dual demographic challenge" with "very low birth rates and high emigration."

"Many of these nations in Eastern Europe experienced significant social and economic upheaval after the collapse of communism, which disrupted family policies and created long-term uncertainty," she said. "Since joining the European Union, large numbers of young people from these countries have migrated westward in search of better economic opportunities. This not only further reduces the number of people of reproductive age but also leads to a shrinking labor force and aging population."

Sobotka added: "Europe has been divided, with much of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe experiencing large-scale outmigration in the past three decades and other regions mostly seeing positive migration balance"

Some European countries have seen massive population increases because of immigration, despite still struggling with fertility rates. These include the United Kingdom, Austria and Sweden.

Notably, Spain's birth rate has gone up for the first time in a decade, with 1,378 more births in 2024 than in 2023, and analysts are attribute this to immigration.

But there are multiple factors that are unique to Spain, including the fact that the majority of Spain's immigrants come from Latin America.

Demographer Anne Goujon, who heads the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis' Population and Just Societies Program, told Newsweek: "Latin American migrants represent a significant share of the migrant population and are generally better integrated compared to other migrant groups.

"At the moment, migrants are considered more of an asset in Spain than in many other European countries, and the government is strengthening their rights and facilitating their integration."

Can Immigration Be Relied On To Counterbalance Population Decline?

"Migration plays a crucial role in stabilizing or growing populations in several European countries," Muttreja said.

She continued: "In Western and Northern Europe, net migration has been a key contributor to population stability, with younger immigrants helping to replenish the workforce and, in some cases, increase birth rates.

"Experts have long said that, while immigration has and can offset some of the impact of low fertility rates, it cannot be relied on completely.

"There is both a demographic and a political tipping point where immigration alone is no longer a viable solution. Demographically, as societies age and birth rates remain low, the number of immigrants required to stabilize the population becomes increasingly unrealistic."

Sobotka argued that there will be many countries in Europe in which immigration "overcompensates" for low fertility.

He also said there are multiple other factors to consider such as whether the migrants are from "culturally and linguistically similar places" and whether they are "labor migrants, students or refugees."

Other questions that need to be considered, Sobotka said, are: "How well are they integrated in the labor market and do they fill in the labor market gaps?" and "Is their composition balanced in terms of gender?"