Water catastrophe

Pakistan is experiencing an escalating water crisis, driven by rapid population growth, climate change and mismanagement of resources. The country has witnessed an astonishing population surge, increasing from 60 million in 1971 to over 240 million today. This number is projected to exceed 400 million by 2050.

With such a dramatic rise in population, immense pressure has been placed on natural resources, food security, and the overall economy. However, the most alarming consequence of this growth has been the diminishing availability of clean water for agricultural, industrial, and domestic use.

Decades ago, Pakistan was considered a water-abundant country, with per capita water availability being 5650 cubic meters in 1951. However, by 2015, the situation had deteriorated drastically, and NASA classified the Indus River Basin as the second most water-stressed basin in the world.

A year later, both the UNDP) and the PCRWR issued stark warnings that Pakistan was on the brink of absolute water scarcity and would face severe drought by 2025 if urgent action was not taken. These warnings have proven accurate, as just last month, the Sindh government officially declared a drought, while the water levels in the Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs reached dead levels.

The impact of the growing population and climate change has been profound. By 2021, Pakistan’s per capita annual water availability had already declined to 1000 cubic meters, a threshold considered insufficient and categorising Pakistan as a water-stressed country. The situation has worsened further, and today, the figure has dropped closer to 750 cubic meters, making Pakistan water scarce.

As a result, widespread water shortages have emerged, creating political tensions between provinces. The distribution of water has become a contentious issue, raising doubts about the fair implementation of the Water Accord of 1991. The construction of new canals on the Indus Basin has further exacerbated inter-provincial disputes.

Agriculture is the primary consumer of Pakistan’s freshwater, accounting for approximately 97 per cent of the country’s total water usage. The sector contributes nearly 23 per cent to the national GDP and employs 42 per cent of the population. However, the growing water crisis is posing a severe threat to agricultural output. If farmers cannot access sufficient water for irrigation, food prices will soar, unemployment will rise and the economy will suffer dire consequences.

The management of Pakistan’s water resources has been inefficient, with stark differences in practices between provinces. Punjab extracts vast amounts of water to support its choice of water-intensive crops. In contrast, Sindh faces severe waterlogging issues, where millions of acres — nearly 50 per cent of irrigated land — have groundwater levels rising dangerously close to the surface. Excessive irrigation, poor drainage, and the flat topography of the region have contributed to this problem, leading to increasing soil salinity.

Meanwhile, the coastal areas of Sindh are experiencing saltwater intrusion due to reduced freshwater flow into the sea, threatening fertile lands. The WWF has warned that continued upstream water diversions will only accelerate this phenomenon, pushing Karachi, which depends on the Indus River for 85 per cent of its water supply, into severe water shortage.

Upper Sindh has been grappling with severe waterlogging, which has made vast tracts of agricultural land unproductive. This issue has been exacerbated over decades by unchecked canal irrigation, poorly maintained drainage systems, and water seepage from unlined canals and distributaries. While the Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD) and Right Bank Outfall Drain (RBOD) were constructed to manage excess water, mismanagement, corruption, and poor design have rendered them largely ineffective. Addressing this crisis requires urgent interventions, including restoring the functionality of these drainage systems, reinforcing canal infrastructure and adopting modern irrigation techniques such as drip and sprinkler irrigation.

In stark contrast to Sindh’s waterlogging issues, Punjab faces an entirely different challenge: it is rapidly depleting its groundwater reserves. The province extracts between 45 million and 50 million acre-feet of groundwater each year — more than three times the total storage capacity of Tarbela and Mangla combined.

This over-extraction is unsustainable and has resulted in dangerously falling water tables. Faisalabad alone has lost over 45 meters of groundwater in just 15 years. Lahore’s groundwater depletion has accelerated drastically, with annual losses increasing from just over one meter per year in the early 2000s to nearly two meters per year today. If these trends persist, by 2030, Lahore could lose an additional 15 to 20 meters of groundwater, while Multan and Faisalabad would lose 20 and 25 meters, respectively.

Pakistan’s agricultural practices also remain outdated, significantly contributing to inefficient water usage. The country produces an average of three metric tons per hectare of wheat and four metric tons per hectare of rice. In comparison, the US yields four metric tons per hectare of wheat and China six metric tons. Similarly, China and the US produce seven and eight metric tons of rice per hectare, respectively, compared to Pakistan’s four. These disparities highlight the need for modernisation and improved efficiency in farming techniques.

Moreover, Pakistan continues to cultivate highly water-intensive crops such as cotton, rice, and sugarcane, which require 10,000, 5000, and 2500 litres of water per kilogram, respectively. These crops contribute significantly to waterlogging and groundwater depletion. To conserve water and maximise efficiency, Pakistan must consider adopting an agro-zoning approach, ensuring that specific crops are grown in regions best suited for their requirements based on climate and water availability.

Pakistan stands at the precipice of a water catastrophe. Addressing this crisis requires a comprehensive and strategic approach. Immediate steps must be taken to modernise irrigation systems, invest in canal maintenance and enforce strict conservation measures. Agricultural policies should also be revised to promote sustainable practices and reduce dependency on water-intensive crops. Strengthening governance and ensuring the equitable distribution of water resources, under the Indus Water Accord, is essential.

If these measures are not implemented urgently, Pakistan faces an uncertain future where water scarcity could lead to widespread food insecurity, economic instability and devastating social consequences.

The writer is a former senator and former chairperson of the HEC.