Sir Keir Starmer is taking a holiday. After dealing with the economic carnage wrought by President Trump’s global trade war, the prime minister and his family are heading to southern Europe on Sunday as he seeks to recharge his batteries in the sun.
On previous holidays Starmer has had to get up at 4.30am to work on his ministerial box before his family wakes. Aides are hoping that this time he can get a genuine rest, although that looks unlikely.
He has already delayed his departure by 24 hours to deal with the crisis engulfing British Steel and the recall of parliament, making this the third holiday he has put off since taking office, after the riots and the death of his brother.
On his return he will receive an answer to one of the biggest questions in British politics today: has his approach to Trump worked?
The prime minister has invested personal and political capital in his relationship with the US president, resisting calls to take a stronger line and pursuing closer ties at every turn.
Where the European Union has threatened to hit the US with retaliatory tariffs, Britain has stayed its hand. Where other world leaders have criticised Trump, Starmer has praised him and hailed him as a friend. There is, however, no evidence that this approach is making a difference.
The UK is subject to the same level of tariffs as the EU. A trade deal that was ready to go a week ago remains under discussion amid evidence that America is coming back for more. Baroness Harman, a former Labour minister, told Sky News this week that Starmer needed to address the “elephant in the room” and say explicitly that Trump is wrong.
Starmer and those around him disagree. His critics, one ally said, “want their Hugh Grant moment” — referring to a scene in the film Love Actually, where the prime minister stands up to the US president.
“A friend who bullies us is no longer a friend,” Grant says in the film. “And since bullies only respond to strength, from now onward I will be prepared to be much stronger.”
Those calling for Starmer to confront Trump are ridiculed. “They want their Hugh Grant prime minister moment to feel good about themselves so their dinner party friends will nod along and say how wonderful it was,” a Starmer ally said. “They are not thinking about the steelworkers or car workers whose jobs are on the line.”
Pessimism is growing in Downing Street as to what can be achieved. Senior figures in the White House have suggested that Britain will continue to face a 10 per cent “baseline” tariff on exports.
No 10 believes that Trump has been so preoccupied with the backlash from the markets that deal-making has taken a back seat. Starmer notably has not spoken to him since “liberation day” on April 2, but there are hopes of significant progress next week.
Negotiations on the deal continue at official level, with Trump’s team said to be warm. The US side has taken to sending their British counterparts podcasts and clips of interviews in which they laud the UK. There remains hope that a deal will be reached, although the situation is unpredictable.
Downing Street was given no notice of Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs on Thursday, learning of the climbdown from his Truth Social social media site along with the rest of the world. It took No 10 two hours to confirm what it meant for Britain — no change in tariffs.
Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative, told Congress this week that he has raised concerns with the UK about “barriers” to US agricultural exports, a reference to the ban on chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef. The UK has been clear that standards of animal welfare and hygiene are not negotiable.
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Frustration is growing. One minister said that Trump had gone “completely mad” and had effectively “blocked himself in”.
No 10’s strategy had been to establish who was authorised to speak for Trump and build up relations with them. Events have established that there is no proxy. “There is one man in charge, it’s all him,” a senior government source said. “Nobody else has any real power. He is the master of all he surveys.”
Even were the UK to secure an exemption from tariffs, the global trade war will still have an impact. China has responded to Trump’s tariffs of 145 per cent with a rate of 125 per cent on US imports.
The EU is still threatening Trump with tariffs and tax rises, which senior government figures say would damage Britain’s economic prospects.
Starmer acknowledged as much this week. “Simply thinking that any change in the rates or any deals is going to be enough to my mind is wrong,” he told ITV. “There’s a changing world, we’re entering a new era. We think we have to behave in a way that reflects that.”
A YouGov survey for The Times shows public support for Starmer’s approach: 35 per cent of voters saying he is handling the issue well and 34 per cent badly. Starmer is an unpopular prime minister — he is disliked by 51 per cent of voters — so the difference is not insignificant.
As uncertainty surrounds Trump, the UK pursues closer relations with the EU. In London on May 19, Starmer will host Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, and Antonio Costa, president of the European Council.
The government wants to open the door to a defence pact and a wider economic deal and is increasingly hopeful that this will prevail over a row about fishing rights that has threatened to derail talks.
The government is looking at alignment with EU rules in established industries such as chemicals but is drawing a red line on the customs union as concern mounts in No 10 over the threat posed by Reform. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, said this week that closer ties with the EU were imperative given Trump’s trade war.
Some in government think that if Starmer is serious about adjusting to a changing world, he should think the unthinkable, including rejoining the customs union.
Debate is mounting on the government’s “iron-clad” fiscal rules and deeper cuts and more tax rises in the autumn are seen as inevitable. Starmer believes that he can use the British Steel crisis to show that he is serious about reindustrialisation and willing to take on the foreign owner of a critical element of national infrastructure.
Starmer is frustrated by the pace of his government. At cabinet this week he admonished ministers for delays in the process by which policies are approved because of differences between departments.
For now, all eyes remain on the White House. Starmer came into government with a pledge to change Britain and ensure its people were better off. Unless Trump changes tack soon, those hopes will be severely dented.
