Maybe the Tories are doomed, but at least under a reinvigorated Rishi they won't go down without a fight, writes LEO McKINSTRY
After the dramatic passage of his flagship Rwanda Bill through Parliament early yesterday morning, Rishi Sunak was in defiant mood. 'Nothing is going to stand in our way,' he declared.
Just a few months ago, such a statement might have smacked of hubris, but the Prime Minister took a huge risk in staking his authority on this measure, and the gamble appears — right now, at least — to have worked.
The moment the Bill was finally passed was not only a decisive victory for the Government, but also his own very personal triumph.
The Prime Minister took a huge risk in staking his authority on Rwanda policy, and the gamble appears — right now, at least — to have worked
Some members of his Cabinet thought he was dangerously misguided in focusing so much energy and political capital on his Rwanda plan, which aims to deter crossings of the English Channel by ensuring illegal migrants are sent to the central African republic.
'He is a really bad politician,' said one minister just before Christmas, arguing that Sunak had chosen the wrong battleground.
Threat
But unlike his critics, the Prime Minister recognised that radical action is needed to close down the illicit cross-Channel trade run by the people-trafficking gangs.
Not only have the numbers become unsustainable, but the route represents a mortal threat to the safety of vulnerable people desperate to make it to our shores, a risk that was thrown into sharp relief only yesterday by the death of five migrants — including a little girl — who'd attempted the crossing.
It cannot be denied that many hurdles lie ahead. Left-wing lawyers representing migrants who seek to avoid deportation will comb the small print of the legislation in search of any loophole that might serve their cause. Opponents of a crackdown, who love to proclaim their supposedly humanitarian values, will seek to win in the court of public opinion.
The PM, pictured talking to reporters en route to Poland yesterday, recognised that radical action is needed to close down the illicit cross-Channel trade run by people-trafficking gangs
But voters are heartily fed up with the toleration of a racket that allows migrants — most of them fit, young men — to jump the queue to enter Britain.
Through his determination to stick to his plan, the Prime Minister has also exposed the emptiness of Labour's opposition. Beyond trumpeting their moral superiority, Labour has nothing to offer. The Opposition talks about 'smashing the gangs' — as if that had never been tried — and about 'safe routes', but this is meaningless code for open borders.
The reality is that against all odds, the Prime Minister has driven through an initiative that could have a real impact.
And if the planes do start to take off for Rwanda with scores of deportees on board, the narrative will be transformed. The Tories could begin to eat into Labour's 20-point lead in the polls.
Yet even before any aircraft take to the skies, Sunak's own image has been enhanced by his resolute handling of this issue. For months he has been written off as a dithering technocrat, too immersed in the detail of policy to make decisive interventions.
But now an alternative picture is emerging: that of a leader of uncompromising perseverance whose work ethic is matched by an inner steel. And despite the admittedly dismal prospects of the Tories, Sunak seems to have grown in stature.
Yesterday, as part of his new, tougher approach, he announced that defence spending will increase to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030 — an uplift of at least £75 billion on the current budget and a victory for this paper in its powerful campaign against the neglect of the Armed forces.
This announcement followed his pledge last week to tackle the 'sick-note culture' which is undermining our economy by providing perverse incentives to the unemployed and fostering a spirit of welfare dependency.
In the same vein, his Government has been strong in its defence of Israel and Ukraine, and he and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt have brought back stability to the economy after Liz Truss's disastrous spell in charge.
In contrast to her recklessness, which threatened a financial meltdown, Sunak's economic stewardship is built on Tory principles of sound money, the promotion of enterprise and living within one's means.
It was always a myth — cultivated by his enemies in the party — that he is not a 'true Conservative'.
In fact, he is a stronger believer in fiscal restraint than either Truss or her predecessor Boris Johnson, who once compared his fondness for big-state infrastructure projects with that of the arch interventionist Michael Heseltine. 'I'm a Brexity Hezza,' he declared.
It took a man of Sunak's guts to bring the HS2 gravy train to a halt — and put the brakes on the mad dash to Net Zero.
In fact, much of the diminishing of the PM's reputation is built on a caricature. His detractors insist that he leads a 'zombie' government without a sense of purpose but, in truth, his record in office is more impressive than is usually admitted.
It could be argued that he has done more than any other politician in the past 20 years to save the union between England and Scotland.
For it was his decision to block the Scottish Nationalists' Gender Recognition Bill which had been passed by the Scottish parliament and would have made Scotland the first part of the UK to introduce a self-identification system for people who want to change gender.
Migrants cross the Channel on a dangerously overloaded small boat in March
It was a highly controversial move and ultimately led to the downfall of Nicola Sturgeon. The SNP has been in crisis ever since.
Yet at the time, Sunak came in for severe criticism, even from his own party, for challenging the Scottish Nationalists' policy.
A Tory member of the Scottish Parliament, Jamie Greene, described his move as a 'gift to proponents of independence', and the One-Nation Tory Reform Group said his block on Sturgeon's legislation was 'deeply concerning' and would 'play into the hands of the SNP'.
How wrong they were. Sunak's sound judgment was also evident in his negotiation of the Windsor Framework, which settled the terms of the EU's trade relations with post-Brexit Northern Ireland and paved the way for the return of the devolved assembly in Belfast.
In reconciling the divergent approaches of the Tories, the EU, Sinn Fein and, ultimately, the Democratic Unionists, he revealed himself to be a true political operator.
Predictions of a major rebellion by Tory Euro-sceptics never materialised, for Sunak had read the room better than his critics.
He is far from out of the woods yet, of course. Westminster is constantly abuzz with speculation about leadership bids, and such talk will no doubt be renewed when the party endures another hammering at the local elections next week.
Sunak can certainly come across as wooden and over-rehearsed, but none of his potential successors — such as business secretary Kemi Badenoch, defence secretary Grant Shapps or leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt — has anything like his authority, intellectual firepower or sense of purpose.
'He is a complete machine. I have never seen anything like it,' says one official who worked at the Treasury when Sunak was Chancellor.
William Hague, his predecessor as MP for Richmond (Yorks), is certain of the Prime Minister's qualities: 'I struggle to recall anyone with stronger attributes of intelligence, thoughtfulness and self-discipline.' And, as his recent pronouncements have shown, he is committed to Tory principles.
The Conservative cause may well be doomed, but at least under Sunak they will go down fighting.
